Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt ceiling ahead of any binding limit, most recently lifting it to $41.1 trillion in 2025. With public debt near $40.3 trillion, projections place the statutory limit in reach during 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures could delay an X-date into late 2027 or early 2028. A continuing resolution extending funding through December 2026 further signals routine fiscal management. Bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and payment delays have historically overridden partisan disputes. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged post-midterm deadlock preventing any ceiling adjustment or an unforeseen fiscal shock that exhausts cash reserves faster than expected.