Traders assign a 98.1% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any binding constraint, with the current $41.1 trillion cap—enacted in 2025—projected to be reached around May 2027 and the X-date falling into 2028 after extraordinary measures. Recent debt figures above $40.3 trillion and ongoing borrowing needs have prompted early discussions of preemptive action during the post-midterm lame-duck session or early 2027 to avoid brinkmanship costs. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in institutional incentives and past resolutions. Late-breaking scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually protracted standoff after the 2026 elections under divided government or unanticipated fiscal shocks that accelerate the timeline.