Recent U.S. CPI data and forward indicators have positioned the 3.6% and 3.7% year-over-year outcomes as the leading market-implied probabilities for the September 2026 annual inflation print. August’s 3.4% headline reading reflected a 0.4% month-over-month increase driven by gasoline and core services, while New York Fed consumer surveys showed one-year-ahead expectations rising to 3.9%. Forecasts from multiple providers converge near 3.6–3.7%, consistent with persistent energy price pressure and shelter costs that have kept core measures above 2.4%. The FOMC’s September 2026 SEP and rate hike underscored the view that inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% target. With the BLS release scheduled for October 14, traders are weighting these levels most heavily in the absence of major downside surprises in incoming data.