Geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened near-term global supply balances, underpinning the 70.5% market-implied probability that June 2026 WTI crude settles above $84. Spot prices have remained elevated near $102–$107 per barrel amid sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter and production shut-ins, with June futures reflecting a steep backwardation that prices in sustained risk premiums through settlement. Traders weigh these supply constraints against modest demand growth and potential diplomatic signals that could ease flows by late June, while upcoming EIA inventory data and OPEC+ compliance reports represent the key catalysts likely to shift consensus before final resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 71%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 1.9%
$164,054 Vol.
$164,054 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
71%
>$84 71%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 1.9%
$164,054 Vol.
$164,054 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
71%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened near-term global supply balances, underpinning the 70.5% market-implied probability that June 2026 WTI crude settles above $84. Spot prices have remained elevated near $102–$107 per barrel amid sharp inventory draws of roughly 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter and production shut-ins, with June futures reflecting a steep backwardation that prices in sustained risk premiums through settlement. Traders weigh these supply constraints against modest demand growth and potential diplomatic signals that could ease flows by late June, while upcoming EIA inventory data and OPEC+ compliance reports represent the key catalysts likely to shift consensus before final resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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