Recent military leadership changes in China, including investigations and removals of senior PLA figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in early 2026, along with additional officer dismissals later that year, have driven trader assessments of coup attempt odds. These actions, officially attributed to discipline violations and factionalism by state sources, coincided with speculation over internal disagreements on Taiwan strategy and Central Military Commission dynamics, prompting unverified reports of plots or clashes that did not meet criteria for widely confirmed events. The market resolves based on credible independent reporting explicitly describing a coordinated effort by state actors, keeping implied probabilities low amid the absence of such documentation. Ongoing opacity in Chinese politics and potential further personnel shifts through year-end could influence sentiment, though historical patterns show purges as tools of consolidation rather than indicators of successful challenges.