Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027, reflecting President Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated anti-corruption drives and senior military and party appointments that have sidelined potential rivals. Centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and security institutions, has further limited opportunities for coordinated elite challenges. No major factional fractures or public signals of instability have emerged in recent years to alter this assessment. Even amid economic headwinds or external tensions, the structure of one-party rule continues to favor continuity. Late-breaking developments such as an abrupt leadership transition, a major foreign-policy reversal, or an unprecedented elite split could still shift probabilities, though current conditions make these scenarios remote.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$129,839 Vol.
$129,839 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$129,839 Vol.
$129,839 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027, reflecting President Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated anti-corruption drives and senior military and party appointments that have sidelined potential rivals. Centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and security institutions, has further limited opportunities for coordinated elite challenges. No major factional fractures or public signals of instability have emerged in recent years to alter this assessment. Even amid economic headwinds or external tensions, the structure of one-party rule continues to favor continuity. Late-breaking developments such as an abrupt leadership transition, a major foreign-policy reversal, or an unprecedented elite split could still shift probabilities, though current conditions make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
ভলিউম
$129,839শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027, reflecting President Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated anti-corruption drives and senior military and party appointments that have sidelined potential rivals. Centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and security institutions, has further limited opportunities for coordinated elite challenges. No major factional fractures or public signals of instability have emerged in recent years to alter this assessment. Even amid economic headwinds or external tensions, the structure of one-party rule continues to favor continuity. Late-breaking developments such as an abrupt leadership transition, a major foreign-policy reversal, or an unprecedented elite split could still shift probabilities, though current conditions make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$129,839শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a coup attempt in China before 2027, reflecting President Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated anti-corruption drives and senior military and party appointments that have sidelined potential rivals. Centralized control over the People’s Liberation Army, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and security institutions, has further limited opportunities for coordinated elite challenges. No major factional fractures or public signals of instability have emerged in recent years to alter this assessment. Even amid economic headwinds or external tensions, the structure of one-party rule continues to favor continuity. Late-breaking developments such as an abrupt leadership transition, a major foreign-policy reversal, or an unprecedented elite split could still shift probabilities, though current conditions make these scenarios remote.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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