Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 56.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent polling leads in the Abgeordnetenhaus race. The latest INSA poll (April 7–14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15% each, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%; PolitPro's April 18 trend confirms CDU at 21.8% with a narrow edge. Recent surveys indicate stability despite slight CDU softening from its 28% in the 2023 repeat election, amid a fragmented field where no single challenger breaks away. Projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of majority, heightening uncertainty, while Grüne and Linke probabilities (15.3% and 11.5%) mirror their vote clusters, and AfD's 9.9% reflects barriers to overtaking despite gains. National CDU momentum bolsters the state lead in Berlin's proportional representation system.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডবার্লিন রাজ্য নির্বাচন বিজয়ী
বার্লিন রাজ্য নির্বাচন বিজয়ী
CDU 56%
গ্রüne 15.3%
লিঙ্কে 12%
আফডি 9.9%
$2,573,906 Vol.
$2,573,906 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
56%
গ্রüne
15%
লিঙ্কে
12%
আফডি
10%
এসপিডি
7%
বিএসডব্লিউ
1%
এফডিপি
<1%
এফডাব্লিউ
<1%
CDU 56%
গ্রüne 15.3%
লিঙ্কে 12%
আফডি 9.9%
$2,573,906 Vol.
$2,573,906 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$15,434 Vol.
56%
গ্রüne
$27,984 Vol.
15%
লিঙ্কে
$11,660 Vol.
12%
আফডি
$2,187,507 Vol.
10%
এসপিডি
$287,440 Vol.
7%
বিএসডব্লিউ
$26,369 Vol.
1%
এফডিপি
$10,379 Vol.
<1%
এফডাব্লিউ
$7,131 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 56.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent polling leads in the Abgeordnetenhaus race. The latest INSA poll (April 7–14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15% each, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%; PolitPro's April 18 trend confirms CDU at 21.8% with a narrow edge. Recent surveys indicate stability despite slight CDU softening from its 28% in the 2023 repeat election, amid a fragmented field where no single challenger breaks away. Projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of majority, heightening uncertainty, while Grüne and Linke probabilities (15.3% and 11.5%) mirror their vote clusters, and AfD's 9.9% reflects barriers to overtaking despite gains. National CDU momentum bolsters the state lead in Berlin's proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
ভলিউম
$2,573,906শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 56.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent polling leads in the Abgeordnetenhaus race. The latest INSA poll (April 7–14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15% each, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%; PolitPro's April 18 trend confirms CDU at 21.8% with a narrow edge. Recent surveys indicate stability despite slight CDU softening from its 28% in the 2023 repeat election, amid a fragmented field where no single challenger breaks away. Projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of majority, heightening uncertainty, while Grüne and Linke probabilities (15.3% and 11.5%) mirror their vote clusters, and AfD's 9.9% reflects barriers to overtaking despite gains. National CDU momentum bolsters the state lead in Berlin's proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
ভলিউম
$2,573,906শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 56.5% implied probability to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent polling leads in the Abgeordnetenhaus race. The latest INSA poll (April 7–14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15% each, with FDP at 3% and BSW at 4%; PolitPro's April 18 trend confirms CDU at 21.8% with a narrow edge. Recent surveys indicate stability despite slight CDU softening from its 28% in the 2023 repeat election, amid a fragmented field where no single challenger breaks away. Projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of majority, heightening uncertainty, while Grüne and Linke probabilities (15.3% and 11.5%) mirror their vote clusters, and AfD's 9.9% reflects barriers to overtaking despite gains. National CDU momentum bolsters the state lead in Berlin's proportional representation system.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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