Recent polls ahead of Berlin's September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented field with CDU holding a modest lead in the low 20s while AfD, Die Linke, and Grüne cluster tightly behind in the mid-to-high teens and SPD trails further back. This distribution sustains close market probabilities among the top four contenders, as proportional representation and coalition arithmetic reward even small shifts in voter support across multiple parties. No major single catalyst has emerged in recent weeks to widen gaps, leaving trader consensus sensitive to ongoing national trends, local governance performance, and potential late-campaign movements among center-right, left, and green-leaning blocs.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডTempelhofer Feld development becomes major election issue in Berlin
CDU rises to 30%3%
The proposed plan to develop Tempelhofer Feld sparked debate and became a divisive topic in the Berlin election campaign, highlighting housing crisis concerns. This issue influenced voter sentiment and party positioning, impacting polling dynamics and market prices, particularly for CDU and Greens.
Grüne and Linke gain in polls, SPD remains weak at 7% market price
SPD dips to 7%3%
In May 2026, polls indicated gains for Grüne and Linke, while SPD continued to struggle with historic low support, reflected in market prices dropping to 7% for SPD and modest gains for the others.
AfD achieves best-ever result in western German state election, boosting party momentum
AfD surges to 26%16%
The AfD achieved its best election result to date in a western German state with 18.8% of the vote, signaling growing support and momentum. This success increased market confidence in AfD's prospects in Berlin, reflected in rising prices for the AfD outcome.
SPD's lead candidate Steffen Krach campaigns for Berlin election
SPD dips to 7%1%
SPD's announcement and campaign activities led by Steffen Krach in May 2026 aimed to boost the party's standing, but market prices remained low reflecting limited electoral prospects.
AfD gains in polls reaching 25%, CDU support drops to 27%
AfD jumps to 25%6%
Polls in late May 2026 showed a surge in AfD support to 25%, while CDU's support declined to 27%, reflecting growing market uncertainty and a shift in confidence away from CDU towards AfD.
INSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
AfD gains momentum in regional elections, raising profile ahead of Berlin vote
AfD jumps to 26%8%
AfD's strong polling and local election successes in eastern states boosted its national profile and market confidence, reflected in rising prices for AfD in the Berlin election market despite resistance from other parties.
Late May polls show AfD rising to 25%, CDU falling to 27%
AfD jumps to 25%6%
Polling data in late May 2026 showed a surge in AfD support to 25%, while CDU support dropped to 27%, reflecting a volatile race and causing market price adjustments for both parties.
AfD surges in Berlin polls, nearing CDU support levels
AfD jumps to 27%8%
Mid-May polling data showed a significant rise in AfD support to around 27-28%, closing the gap with CDU and causing a sharp increase in AfD market prices, while CDU prices dropped sharply.
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
INSA poll shows CDU with 31 seats, AfD gains to 28 seats
CDU plunges to 39%17%
The May 8 INSA poll indicated a slight decline for CDU to 31 seats but a rise for AfD to 28 seats, reflecting a tightening race and impacting market prices for both parties.
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 20%, AfD and SPD close behind
CDU drops to 39%14%
The INSA poll in early May showed the CDU leading with 20%, followed by AfD at 18% and SPD at 16%, with Greens and Linke also competitive. This polling data influenced market prices, reflecting a competitive multi-party race with no clear dominant party.
INSA poll projects CDU leading Berlin election with 20%, AfD second at 18%
CDU dips to 37%3%
The INSA poll projected the CDU as the leading party in Berlin with 20% support, followed by AfD at 18%, SPD at 16%, and Greens and Left at 15%, reflecting a fragmented field with no clear dominant party.
INSA poll confirms CDU lead at 20%, AfD and SPD close behind
CDU dips to 35%4%
The INSA poll in early May 2026 confirmed CDU's lead at 20%, with AfD at 18% and SPD at 16%, stabilizing CDU's position but showing a competitive field, which influenced market prices to reflect a narrower CDU advantage.
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
New polls show CDU still leading but with shrinking margin
CDU dips to 35%3%
Early May polls confirmed CDU's lead at around 20-23%, but the gap to AfD, Grüne, and Linke narrowed significantly, reflecting a highly competitive race and causing market prices for CDU to drop and others to gain.
Poll shows CDU narrowly ahead with 19%, closely followed by Left, Greens, and AfD at 18% each
CDU plunges to 40%16%
A new election poll revealed a tight race with the CDU losing some support to the Left, Greens, and AfD, all polling around 18%. This eroded CDU's lead and caused market prices for CDU to decline and AfD, Linke, and Grüne to gain.
Berlin poll shows CDU narrowly ahead with Left, Greens, and AfD close behind
CDU dips to 52%4%
A new Infratest poll for RBB showed the CDU at 19%, just marginally ahead of the Left Party, Greens, and AfD each at 18%, indicating a highly competitive and fragmented race ahead of the election.
Poll shows CDU support dropping to 19%, AfD, Linke, and Greens nearly tied
CDU plunges to 39%17%
An April 2026 poll revealed a significant drop in CDU support to 19%, with AfD, Linke, and Greens all close behind at 18%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction and causing a sharp decline in CDU market price and gains for the others.
Berlin polls show CDU leading narrowly with 19-21%, AfD and others close behind
CDU drops to 51%8%
April 2026 polls indicated a narrow lead for CDU in Berlin with around 19-21%, while AfD, Greens, and Linke clustered closely behind, reflecting a fragmented political landscape and shaping market expectations.
Polls show tight race in Berlin with CDU narrowly leading and Greens, Linke, AfD close behind
CDU dips to 53%3%
Polling data in late April indicated a close contest in Berlin with the CDU leading at around 19%, closely followed by the Greens, Linke, and AfD at approximately 18% each, while SPD lagged behind. This reflected a fragmented political landscape and contributed to market volatility for the Berlin election winner market.
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as mayor of Berlin after coalition talks
CDU jumps to 72%13%
On April 27, 2026, CDU leader Kai Wegner was approved as mayor of Berlin after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's leading role in Berlin's government. This event reinforced market confidence in CDU's victory, causing a price peak.
Far-right AfD rises to record 28% in Berlin poll, widening lead over CDU
AfD jumps to 18%11%
The AfD surged in Berlin polls to a record 28%, surpassing the CDU and signaling growing support for the far-right party amid a fragmented political landscape, increasing uncertainty about the CDU's ability to maintain its lead.
Resignation of Berlin's Culture Senator linked to CDU amid funding scandal
CDU drops to 51%11%
The resignation of Sarah Wedl-Wilson, a non-party member serving for CDU, over illegal funding allocations, negatively impacted CDU's public image and contributed to a decline in their polling and market prices in late April.
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 21%
CDU drops to 51%7%
The INSA poll confirmed CDU's lead in Berlin with 21%, followed by AfD and SPD at 17%. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's plurality chances, though the fragmented field suggested no clear majority, influencing price stability and slight declines for CDU.
INSA poll projects CDU with 32 representatives in Berlin parliament
CDU rises to 59%3%
The INSA poll released in mid-April 2026 projected the CDU to secure 32 seats, strengthening market expectations of a CDU victory and contributing to price fluctuations.
Civey poll confirms CDU as strongest party with 23% support
CDU jumps to 62%9%
A Civey poll published on March 26, 2026, showed the CDU leading with 23%, reinforcing market confidence in their chances to win the Berlin state election.
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Civey poll shows CDU leading with 23%, AfD and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 53%10%
A March 2026 Civey poll showed CDU leading with 23%, but AfD, Linke, SPD, and Grüne were close behind with 15-16%, indicating a tightening race and causing market prices for CDU to decline and AfD, Linke, and Grüne to rise.
Civey poll shows CDU maintaining lead with 23% in Berlin election
CDU jumps to 59%6%
A Civey poll published on March 26, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely behind. This poll sustained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive multi-party race.
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
CDU wins Rhineland-Palatinate state election, SPD suffers historic defeat
CDU rises to 63%4%
The CDU's victory in Rhineland-Palatinate and SPD's worst-ever result intensified pressure on the SPD and boosted CDU's momentum, influencing market confidence in CDU's prospects in Berlin.
CDU wins Rhineland-Palatinate state election, SPD suffers worst-ever result
CDU rises to 56%3%
The CDU secured a victory in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing the SPD after 35 years in power and delivering the SPD its worst state election result. This boosted CDU morale and market confidence, while further weakening the SPD's standing ahead of Berlin elections.
Rhineland-Palatinate state election tight race between CDU and SPD
CDU dips to 56%4%
The CDU and SPD faced a close contest in Rhineland-Palatinate, with CDU campaigning on difficult cooperation with Greens and desire to lead new coalition. This election was seen as a test for CDU's strength and coalition prospects, affecting market expectations for CDU and SPD in Berlin.
Chancellor Merz rules out cooperation with far-right AfD after state election
Following the Baden-Württemberg election, Chancellor Merz reaffirmed no cooperation with the far-right AfD, maintaining the CDU's stance and affecting market perceptions of AfD's potential in Berlin.
Greens win Baden-Württemberg state election, CDU suffers narrow defeat
CDU drops to 50%13%
The Greens' unexpected victory in Baden-Württemberg marked a setback for the CDU, raising concerns about CDU's national and Berlin prospects. Chancellor Merz downplayed the impact on Berlin coalition, but the result influenced market sentiment, contributing to CDU price volatility.
Green Party wins narrow victory in Baden-Württemberg state election, CDU suffers historic low
CDU drops to 53%10%
The Greens achieved a surprise win in Baden-Württemberg, marking a significant defeat for the CDU, which recorded its worst postwar result in the state. This outcome dampened market confidence in the CDU's prospects in Berlin and highlighted challenges for Chancellor Merz's party nationally.
Greens win narrow victory over CDU in Baden-Württemberg state election
CDU drops to 51%12%
The Greens' surprise win in Baden-Württemberg was a setback for the CDU, reflecting challenges for Chancellor Merz's party and impacting perceptions of CDU's strength nationally and in Berlin. This contributed to a decline in CDU market prices.
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
CDU and SPD begin negotiations for grand coalition after Berlin election results
CDU rises to 60%4%
Following the 2023 repeat state election and ongoing political talks, the CDU and SPD voted to start negotiations for a grand coalition in early 2026. This political development supported CDU's position as the leading party, stabilizing its market price.
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Civey poll confirms CDU lead with 22% in Berlin election
CDU jumps to 60%8%
The Civey poll released on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's lead at 22%, with Grüne, Die Linke, AfD, and SPD trailing closely. This poll maintained market confidence in CDU but showed a fragmented opposition.
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU drops to 52%10%
A poll by Infratest dimap published on January 14, 2026, showed the CDU as the leading party with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD. This poll influenced market prices, confirming CDU's frontrunner status but indicating a competitive race.
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner plays tennis during city-wide blackout, initially misleads public
CDU plunges to 48%15%
During the blackout crisis, Mayor Kai Wegner was reported to have played tennis with his partner instead of managing the emergency on-site, later admitting to a 'short break' after initially denying it. This led to widespread criticism and calls for his resignation, damaging CDU's public image.
CDU peaks at 63% market price amid positive momentum
CDU rises to 63%2%
The CDU's market price peaked at 63% in early January 2026, reflecting growing confidence possibly due to favorable polling and political developments reinforcing their frontrunner status.
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll, set to win two State elections in 2026
AfD jumps to 12%7%
A nationwide poll published in early January 2026 showed the AfD at a record 27%, ahead of the CDU at 24%. This surge in AfD popularity caused a sharp drop in CDU market prices and a rise in AfD prices, reflecting increased expectations for AfD success in Berlin.
Arson attack causes major power outage affecting 45,000 Berlin households
An arson attack on Berlin's power grid caused a significant blackout affecting tens of thousands of households and businesses, raising public safety concerns and political scrutiny of city leadership.
Massive power outage hits southwest Berlin due to left-wing extremist arson attack
CDU plunges to 47%16%
A politically motivated arson attack caused a blackout affecting 45,000 households in southwest Berlin, leading to a crisis that drew public and political attention. The incident negatively impacted the CDU's market confidence as Mayor Kai Wegner faced criticism for his handling of the crisis, including playing tennis during the outage.
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
CDU leads Berlin polls but faces declining support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Early December polls showed CDU as the frontrunner with around 25% support, but signs of weakening momentum emerged, causing market prices for CDU to fluctuate. This set the tone for a competitive election with no clear dominant party.
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
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