Blue Origin's recovery from the May 2026 New Glenn static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 drives the near-certain "No" consensus, as the company focuses on pad reconstruction, BE-4 engine valve fixes, and hybrid horizontal-vertical integration changes rather than active launches. No New Shepard crewed flights or New Glenn orbital attempts are scheduled before late October, with the next return-to-flight target set for December 2026 at the earliest after ongoing fault-tree analysis and infrastructure repairs. While an accelerated static test or regulatory clearance could theoretically introduce risk in the final weeks, the compressed timeline and emphasis on validated hardware make an explosion by October 31 unlikely.