Anthropic's recent September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped multiple leaderboards including BenchAlign at 84.36 and strong results on Terminal-Bench and coding agent metrics, underpin the 75% implied probability for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in reasoning, software engineering, and agentic workflows over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released days earlier and scoring competitively at 84.11 but trailing in several verified evaluations. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained frontier positioning amid rapid model iterations, though further releases or benchmark shifts by late October could alter the tight race among leading labs.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 75%
OpenAI 17.8%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$232,364 Vol.
$232,364 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
75%
OpenAI
18%
6%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 17.8%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$232,364 Vol.
$232,364 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$38,357 Vol.
75%
OpenAI
$22,351 Vol.
18%
$20,550 Vol.
6%
Meta
$22,208 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$17,113 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$18,666 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$17,718 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,832 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$13,861 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,004 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped multiple leaderboards including BenchAlign at 84.36 and strong results on Terminal-Bench and coding agent metrics, underpin the 75% implied probability for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in reasoning, software engineering, and agentic workflows over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released days earlier and scoring competitively at 84.11 but trailing in several verified evaluations. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained frontier positioning amid rapid model iterations, though further releases or benchmark shifts by late October could alter the tight race among leading labs.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$232,364শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped multiple leaderboards including BenchAlign at 84.36 and strong results on Terminal-Bench and coding agent metrics, underpin the 75% implied probability for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in reasoning, software engineering, and agentic workflows over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released days earlier and scoring competitively at 84.11 but trailing in several verified evaluations. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained frontier positioning amid rapid model iterations, though further releases or benchmark shifts by late October could alter the tight race among leading labs.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$232,364শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped multiple leaderboards including BenchAlign at 84.36 and strong results on Terminal-Bench and coding agent metrics, underpin the 75% implied probability for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in reasoning, software engineering, and agentic workflows over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released days earlier and scoring competitively at 84.11 but trailing in several verified evaluations. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained frontier positioning amid rapid model iterations, though further releases or benchmark shifts by late October could alter the tight race among leading labs.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা