France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于法国 18.4%
西班牙 13.7%
英格兰 12.8%
阿根廷 11.8%
$2,661,999,083 交易量
$2,661,999,083 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
14%
英格兰
13%
阿根廷
12%
葡萄牙
7%
巴西
7%
德国
6%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
墨西哥
2%
比利时
2%
瑞士
1%
塞内加尔
1%
克罗地亚
1%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞典
1%
土耳其
<1%
厄瓜多尔
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
Austria
<1%
South Korea
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
捷克
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
法国 18.4%
西班牙 13.7%
英格兰 12.8%
阿根廷 11.8%
$2,661,999,083 交易量
$2,661,999,083 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
14%
英格兰
13%
阿根廷
12%
葡萄牙
7%
巴西
7%
德国
6%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
墨西哥
2%
比利时
2%
瑞士
1%
塞内加尔
1%
克罗地亚
1%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞典
1%
土耳其
<1%
厄瓜多尔
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
Austria
<1%
South Korea
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
捷克
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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