Spain heads into the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the clear frontrunner in Group H, with its status as reigning European champions, world ranking of second, and squad depth driving the 77.5% implied probability for topping the group. Uruguay sits as the primary challenger at 18.5%, backed by its extensive World Cup experience and proven competitiveness in international competition despite a lower ranking. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde trail at 2.6% and 1.4%, reflecting their lower FIFA rankings and limited recent success against stronger sides, though Cape Verde’s historic debut adds context to its presence. Pre-tournament previews and Saudi Arabia’s early arrival in the United States for training camp have not shifted expectations, leaving Spain favored to advance first while the other three battle for the remaining spots in a group that begins June 15.