Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$431,181 交易量
2026-07-31
7月1日
是
7月2日
是
7月3日
是
7月4日
是
7月5日
是
7月6日
是
7月7日
否
7月8日
是
7月9日
否
7月10日
否
7月11日
是
7月12日
是
7月13日
是
7月14日
是
7月15日
是
7月16日
否
7月17日
是
7月18日
是
7月19日
是
7月20日
否
7月21日
是
7月22日
是
7月23日
是
7月24日
是
7月25日
否
7月26日
是
7月27日
是
7月28日
是
7月29日
是
7月30日
否
7月31日
是
$431,181 交易量
7月1日
$21,546 交易量
是
7月2日
$13,853 交易量
是
7月3日
$18,606 交易量
是
7月4日
$15,680 交易量
是
7月5日
$15,470 交易量
是
7月6日
$17,992 交易量
是
7月7日
$23,676 交易量
否
7月8日
$9,111 交易量
是
7月9日
$11,506 交易量
否
7月10日
$26,575 交易量
否
7月11日
$25,943 交易量
是
7月12日
$29,088 交易量
是
7月13日
$8,601 交易量
是
7月14日
$8,275 交易量
是
7月15日
$15,534 交易量
是
7月16日
$20,979 交易量
否
7月17日
$8,095 交易量
是
7月18日
$21,930 交易量
是
7月19日
$11,898 交易量
是
7月20日
$11,844 交易量
否
7月21日
$10,787 交易量
是
7月22日
$7,662 交易量
是
7月23日
$12,018 交易量
是
7月24日
$11,285 交易量
是
7月25日
$5,278 交易量
否
7月26日
$4,756 交易量
是
7月27日
$7,733 交易量
是
7月28日
$8,004 交易量
是
7月29日
$4,301 交易量
是
7月30日
$12,336 交易量
否
7月31日
$10,820 交易量
是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ET
交易量
$431,181结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$431,181结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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