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icon for 特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?

特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?

icon for 特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?

特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$6,367 交易量

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$6,367 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.Recent diplomatic progress, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding finalized in mid-June 2026 and slated for formalization on June 19 in Switzerland, has centered on ceasefire extensions, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and nuclear talks between Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian. However, these developments remain strictly procedural through electronic signatures, mediators, and official channels, with no scheduled in-person meetings or personal interactions in the final 48-hour window before the June 20 cutoff. Established diplomatic protocols, ongoing bilateral tensions, and Trump’s public schedule make any physical gesture like a hug between leaders improbable. Trader consensus at 98.5% No reflects this structural separation of formal negotiations from informal contact. A last-minute unannounced summit or protocol breach could theoretically shift the outcome, though no credible signals point to such an event.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug.

Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify.

The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
交易量
$6,367
结束日期
2026-06-20
市场开放时间
Jun 15, 2026, 8:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.Recent diplomatic progress, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding finalized in mid-June 2026 and slated for formalization on June 19 in Switzerland, has centered on ceasefire extensions, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and nuclear talks between Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian. However, these developments remain strictly procedural through electronic signatures, mediators, and official channels, with no scheduled in-person meetings or personal interactions in the final 48-hour window before the June 20 cutoff. Established diplomatic protocols, ongoing bilateral tensions, and Trump’s public schedule make any physical gesture like a hug between leaders improbable. Trader consensus at 98.5% No reflects this structural separation of formal negotiations from informal contact. A last-minute unannounced summit or protocol breach could theoretically shift the outcome, though no credible signals point to such an event.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug.

Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify.

The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
交易量
$6,367
结束日期
2026-06-20
市场开放时间
Jun 15, 2026, 8:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying partner in a hug with Donald Trump must be a current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"特朗普会在6月20日之前拥抱一位伊朗官员吗?",概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 0¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 0%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jun 15, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

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这是一个非常开放的市场。"特朗普是否会在6月20日之前拥抱伊朗官员?"的当前领先者是"特朗普会在6月20日之前拥抱一位伊朗官员吗?",仅有 0%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

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