Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ETStrong bipartisan backing for U.S.-Israel military assistance, particularly unified Republican opposition to cuts, underpins the 96% implied probability against House passage of a restrictive bill by September 30. Recent amendments seeking to eliminate $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing failed decisively in July 2026, with votes of 314-104 and near-unanimous GOP resistance, while the National Defense Authorization Act advanced with expanded defense cooperation provisions. With limited session days remaining before the deadline and no pending legislation gaining traction, the chamber’s appropriations and policy priorities continue to favor existing aid frameworks tied to the 2016 memorandum of understanding. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen regional crisis or procedural maneuver capable of overriding leadership control in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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