Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$208,019 交易量
2026-04-12
10
Yes
20
No
30
No
40
No
50
No
60
No
$208,019 交易量
10
$67,321 交易量
Yes
20
$69,827 交易量
No
30
$22,076 交易量
No
40
$12,047 交易量
No
50
$19,070 交易量
No
60
$17,679 交易量
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
交易量
$208,019结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$208,019结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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