Recent polls in the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election show Nigel Farage on roughly 73% support against a field of minor and satirical candidates, including Count Binface at around 20%. This follows his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election and stems from the absence of major-party challengers, a record number of fringe entrants, and expected low turnout that favors his established Reform UK base in the constituency. Trader consensus at 97.8% for an increased vote share reflects these structural advantages and consistent constituency surveys. Factors that could still alter the outcome include turnout collapsing below modeled levels or an unforeseen consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such shifts before polling day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
98% 概率
$23,101 交易量
$23,101 交易量
2026-08-13
是
98% 概率
$23,101 交易量
$23,101 交易量
2026-08-13
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent polls in the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election show Nigel Farage on roughly 73% support against a field of minor and satirical candidates, including Count Binface at around 20%. This follows his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election and stems from the absence of major-party challengers, a record number of fringe entrants, and expected low turnout that favors his established Reform UK base in the constituency. Trader consensus at 97.8% for an increased vote share reflects these structural advantages and consistent constituency surveys. Factors that could still alter the outcome include turnout collapsing below modeled levels or an unforeseen consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such shifts before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
交易量
$23,101结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent polls in the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election show Nigel Farage on roughly 73% support against a field of minor and satirical candidates, including Count Binface at around 20%. This follows his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election and stems from the absence of major-party challengers, a record number of fringe entrants, and expected low turnout that favors his established Reform UK base in the constituency. Trader consensus at 97.8% for an increased vote share reflects these structural advantages and consistent constituency surveys. Factors that could still alter the outcome include turnout collapsing below modeled levels or an unforeseen consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such shifts before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
交易量
$23,101结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls in the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election show Nigel Farage on roughly 73% support against a field of minor and satirical candidates, including Count Binface at around 20%. This follows his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election and stems from the absence of major-party challengers, a record number of fringe entrants, and expected low turnout that favors his established Reform UK base in the constituency. Trader consensus at 97.8% for an increased vote share reflects these structural advantages and consistent constituency surveys. Factors that could still alter the outcome include turnout collapsing below modeled levels or an unforeseen consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such shifts before polling day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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