FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that Iran will participate in the 2026 World Cup as scheduled, with the federation confirming the team's group-stage matches in the United States and approving a training base in Mexico amid travel and security arrangements. Iranian officials have signaled their intent to compete after earlier safety concerns tied to regional conflicts, while Italy's sports minister and Olympic committee president dismissed any replacement proposal as inappropriate and contrary to on-field qualification standards. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability for no replacement reflects these official positions and the absence of further disqualifications or withdrawals in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran or a FIFA rule change, though neither has materialized in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No Replacement 96.6%
Italy 1.9%
Other 1.1%
UAE <1%
$58,873 交易量
$58,873 交易量
2026-08-31
No Replacement
97%
Italy
2%
Other
1%
UAE
1%
Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 96.6%
Italy 1.9%
Other 1.1%
UAE <1%
$58,873 交易量
$58,873 交易量
2026-08-31
No Replacement
$18,105 交易量
97%
Italy
$27,758 交易量
2%
Other
$4,982 交易量
1%
UAE
$5,257 交易量
1%
Bolivia
$2,771 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that Iran will participate in the 2026 World Cup as scheduled, with the federation confirming the team's group-stage matches in the United States and approving a training base in Mexico amid travel and security arrangements. Iranian officials have signaled their intent to compete after earlier safety concerns tied to regional conflicts, while Italy's sports minister and Olympic committee president dismissed any replacement proposal as inappropriate and contrary to on-field qualification standards. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability for no replacement reflects these official positions and the absence of further disqualifications or withdrawals in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran or a FIFA rule change, though neither has materialized in the current environment.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
交易量
$58,873结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that Iran will participate in the 2026 World Cup as scheduled, with the federation confirming the team's group-stage matches in the United States and approving a training base in Mexico amid travel and security arrangements. Iranian officials have signaled their intent to compete after earlier safety concerns tied to regional conflicts, while Italy's sports minister and Olympic committee president dismissed any replacement proposal as inappropriate and contrary to on-field qualification standards. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability for no replacement reflects these official positions and the absence of further disqualifications or withdrawals in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran or a FIFA rule change, though neither has materialized in the current environment.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$58,873结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that Iran will participate in the 2026 World Cup as scheduled, with the federation confirming the team's group-stage matches in the United States and approving a training base in Mexico amid travel and security arrangements. Iranian officials have signaled their intent to compete after earlier safety concerns tied to regional conflicts, while Italy's sports minister and Olympic committee president dismissed any replacement proposal as inappropriate and contrary to on-field qualification standards. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability for no replacement reflects these official positions and the absence of further disqualifications or withdrawals in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran or a FIFA rule change, though neither has materialized in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题