**Recent polling averages place neither the Netanyahu-aligned right-wing bloc (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Shas, UTJ, and allies) nor the main Zionist opposition bloc (Yashar, B’Yachad, Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu) near the 61 seats required for a majority, with both sides typically projected at 50–55 seats amid high volatility across pollsters.** Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud remain neck-and-neck as the largest lists at roughly 20–24 seats each, while smaller parties hover near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold that determines Knesset representation under Israel’s closed-list proportional system. The October 7 anniversary commemorations have intensified focus on security performance and coalition accountability, contributing to narrow shifts in bloc support. With voting scheduled for October 27 and surplus-vote agreements due October 16, final campaign events and turnout among first-time voters and swing blocs will determine which marginal lists clear the threshold and secure seats.