OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released September 3, currently leads Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard at 1,797 points after topping Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in crowdsourced Elo ratings on agentic frontend tasks. This rapid ascent on the live, human-voted benchmark for multi-step web development explains the 66.6% market-implied odds, as traders view the model’s edge in tool use and iterative coding as durable through October. Anthropic’s 21.5% reflects its prior leadership and strong Claude 5 family performance, while lower probabilities for Alibaba, Meta, and others track their trailing scores on the same Pareto frontier. New model drops or leaderboard shifts before month-end remain the key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 68.3%
Anthropic 22%
阿里巴巴 5.2%
谷歌 3.1%
$67,562 交易量
$67,562 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
68%
Anthropic
22%
阿里巴巴
5%
谷歌
3%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
腾讯
1%
Meta
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
小米
<1%
Poolside
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI 68.3%
Anthropic 22%
阿里巴巴 5.2%
谷歌 3.1%
$67,562 交易量
$67,562 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
$5,078 交易量
68%
Anthropic
$49,590 交易量
22%
阿里巴巴
$1,988 交易量
5%
谷歌
$1,628 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$1,701 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$806 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$780 交易量
1%
腾讯
$773 交易量
1%
Meta
$779 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$653 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$819 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$668 交易量
<1%
小米
$639 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$677 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$387 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$596 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released September 3, currently leads Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard at 1,797 points after topping Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in crowdsourced Elo ratings on agentic frontend tasks. This rapid ascent on the live, human-voted benchmark for multi-step web development explains the 66.6% market-implied odds, as traders view the model’s edge in tool use and iterative coding as durable through October. Anthropic’s 21.5% reflects its prior leadership and strong Claude 5 family performance, while lower probabilities for Alibaba, Meta, and others track their trailing scores on the same Pareto frontier. New model drops or leaderboard shifts before month-end remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$67,562结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released September 3, currently leads Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard at 1,797 points after topping Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in crowdsourced Elo ratings on agentic frontend tasks. This rapid ascent on the live, human-voted benchmark for multi-step web development explains the 66.6% market-implied odds, as traders view the model’s edge in tool use and iterative coding as durable through October. Anthropic’s 21.5% reflects its prior leadership and strong Claude 5 family performance, while lower probabilities for Alibaba, Meta, and others track their trailing scores on the same Pareto frontier. New model drops or leaderboard shifts before month-end remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$67,562结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETOpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released September 3, currently leads Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard at 1,797 points after topping Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in crowdsourced Elo ratings on agentic frontend tasks. This rapid ascent on the live, human-voted benchmark for multi-step web development explains the 66.6% market-implied odds, as traders view the model’s edge in tool use and iterative coding as durable through October. Anthropic’s 21.5% reflects its prior leadership and strong Claude 5 family performance, while lower probabilities for Alibaba, Meta, and others track their trailing scores on the same Pareto frontier. New model drops or leaderboard shifts before month-end remain the key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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