Anthropic’s 89% market-implied odds reflect Claude Fable 5.1’s position atop recent LiveBench snapshots, where it posts the highest overall mean across the benchmark’s seven contamination-resistant categories through early September 2026. This lead stems from demonstrated gains in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series variants, which trail by several points in verified public tables. With the September 30 resolution just weeks away and no confirmed higher-scoring releases imminent from competitors, traders price in low probability of a last-minute shift. OpenAI’s 6.8% odds capture residual upside from potential high-effort configurations or new variants, while sub-1% pricing for Google, Meta, and others aligns with their current mid-tier standings on the dynamic leaderboard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 89%
OpenAI 5.8%
Meta <1%
谷歌 <1%
$54,692 交易量
$54,692 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
89%
OpenAI
6%
Meta
<1%
谷歌
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
OpenAI 5.8%
Meta <1%
谷歌 <1%
$54,692 交易量
$54,692 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$16,586 交易量
89%
OpenAI
$13,009 交易量
6%
Meta
$1,681 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$2,566 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$1,916 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$1,609 交易量
<1%
百度
$706 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,393 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$737 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$836 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$681 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$790 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$722 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$806 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$488 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s 89% market-implied odds reflect Claude Fable 5.1’s position atop recent LiveBench snapshots, where it posts the highest overall mean across the benchmark’s seven contamination-resistant categories through early September 2026. This lead stems from demonstrated gains in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series variants, which trail by several points in verified public tables. With the September 30 resolution just weeks away and no confirmed higher-scoring releases imminent from competitors, traders price in low probability of a last-minute shift. OpenAI’s 6.8% odds capture residual upside from potential high-effort configurations or new variants, while sub-1% pricing for Google, Meta, and others aligns with their current mid-tier standings on the dynamic leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
交易量
$54,692结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s 89% market-implied odds reflect Claude Fable 5.1’s position atop recent LiveBench snapshots, where it posts the highest overall mean across the benchmark’s seven contamination-resistant categories through early September 2026. This lead stems from demonstrated gains in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series variants, which trail by several points in verified public tables. With the September 30 resolution just weeks away and no confirmed higher-scoring releases imminent from competitors, traders price in low probability of a last-minute shift. OpenAI’s 6.8% odds capture residual upside from potential high-effort configurations or new variants, while sub-1% pricing for Google, Meta, and others aligns with their current mid-tier standings on the dynamic leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$54,692结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAnthropic’s 89% market-implied odds reflect Claude Fable 5.1’s position atop recent LiveBench snapshots, where it posts the highest overall mean across the benchmark’s seven contamination-resistant categories through early September 2026. This lead stems from demonstrated gains in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series variants, which trail by several points in verified public tables. With the September 30 resolution just weeks away and no confirmed higher-scoring releases imminent from competitors, traders price in low probability of a last-minute shift. OpenAI’s 6.8% odds capture residual upside from potential high-effort configurations or new variants, while sub-1% pricing for Google, Meta, and others aligns with their current mid-tier standings on the dynamic leaderboard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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