Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads most independent benchmarks for reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work, driving its 87.5% implied probability of holding the top model by end of October. Recent releases from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra) and Google (Gemini variants) trail on key metrics like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Pro, while Meta's Muse Spark and others lag further in trader assessments. With six weeks until resolution, the market reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities and consistent frontier positioning, though rapid iteration from competitors or new evaluations could still shift outcomes before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 88%
Google 6.5%
OpenAI 3.8%
Meta 2.0%
$272,801 交易量
$272,801 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
88%
6%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 88%
Google 6.5%
OpenAI 3.8%
Meta 2.0%
$272,801 交易量
$272,801 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$50,206 交易量
88%
$25,449 交易量
6%
OpenAI
$28,427 交易量
4%
Meta
$25,920 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$19,902 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$16,011 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$17,855 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$19,565 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$20,912 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$14,842 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$925 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$4,885 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$949 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$540 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads most independent benchmarks for reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work, driving its 87.5% implied probability of holding the top model by end of October. Recent releases from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra) and Google (Gemini variants) trail on key metrics like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Pro, while Meta's Muse Spark and others lag further in trader assessments. With six weeks until resolution, the market reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities and consistent frontier positioning, though rapid iteration from competitors or new evaluations could still shift outcomes before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$272,801结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads most independent benchmarks for reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work, driving its 87.5% implied probability of holding the top model by end of October. Recent releases from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra) and Google (Gemini variants) trail on key metrics like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Pro, while Meta's Muse Spark and others lag further in trader assessments. With six weeks until resolution, the market reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities and consistent frontier positioning, though rapid iteration from competitors or new evaluations could still shift outcomes before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$272,801结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAnthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads most independent benchmarks for reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work, driving its 87.5% implied probability of holding the top model by end of October. Recent releases from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra) and Google (Gemini variants) trail on key metrics like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Pro, while Meta's Muse Spark and others lag further in trader assessments. With six weeks until resolution, the market reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities and consistent frontier positioning, though rapid iteration from competitors or new evaluations could still shift outcomes before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题