Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and coding benchmarks, sustaining the lab's edge after June and July releases that advanced frontier capabilities in agentic tasks and knowledge work. With only two weeks until end-of-August resolution, traders price this dominance at 96.4% implied probability, reflecting consistent outperformance over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on metrics that align with typical market criteria. A credible new model launch or benchmark update from competitors in the final days could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns show such shifts rarely occur without extended testing windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.7%
谷歌 1.3%
字节跳动 1.1%
$24,694 交易量
$24,694 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
3%
谷歌
1%
字节跳动
1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
百度
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
英伟达
<1%
腾讯
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.7%
谷歌 1.3%
字节跳动 1.1%
$24,694 交易量
$24,694 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$5,654 交易量
96%
OpenAI
$2,843 交易量
3%
谷歌
$2,046 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$608 交易量
1%
小米
$718 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$690 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$721 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,288 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$1,011 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,319 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$1,136 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$459 交易量
<1%
百度
$908 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$330 交易量
<1%
美团
$939 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$330 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$774 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$344 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$891 交易量
<1%
微软
$505 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and coding benchmarks, sustaining the lab's edge after June and July releases that advanced frontier capabilities in agentic tasks and knowledge work. With only two weeks until end-of-August resolution, traders price this dominance at 96.4% implied probability, reflecting consistent outperformance over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on metrics that align with typical market criteria. A credible new model launch or benchmark update from competitors in the final days could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns show such shifts rarely occur without extended testing windows.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
交易量
$24,694结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and coding benchmarks, sustaining the lab's edge after June and July releases that advanced frontier capabilities in agentic tasks and knowledge work. With only two weeks until end-of-August resolution, traders price this dominance at 96.4% implied probability, reflecting consistent outperformance over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on metrics that align with typical market criteria. A credible new model launch or benchmark update from competitors in the final days could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns show such shifts rarely occur without extended testing windows.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$24,694结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and coding benchmarks, sustaining the lab's edge after June and July releases that advanced frontier capabilities in agentic tasks and knowledge work. With only two weeks until end-of-August resolution, traders price this dominance at 96.4% implied probability, reflecting consistent outperformance over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on metrics that align with typical market criteria. A credible new model launch or benchmark update from competitors in the final days could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns show such shifts rarely occur without extended testing windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题