**Strong summer performance and year-to-date momentum have positioned 2026 for a mid-tier all-time domestic ranking, driving the 53.5% implied probability on 10th-12th place.** Through mid-September, the market has surpassed $7.4 billion, fueled by record summer grosses exceeding $4.76 billion—topping 2013—led by *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* nearing $935 million domestically, *The Odyssey* past $600 million, and *Toy Story 5* contributing significantly. Analysts project a full-year total near or above $9 billion, potentially the highest since 2019, supported by robust attendance trends and hits across studios. However, fall variability and the impact of December tentpoles like *Avengers: Doomsday* and *Dune: Part Three* remain key swing factors that could shift the final standing relative to historical benchmarks such as 2023’s $8.9 billion or pre-pandemic peaks. Trader consensus reflects this balanced but not elite trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
10th-12th 54%
6th or higher 24%
7th-9th 11%
Below 15th 5.9%
$11,549 交易量
$11,549 交易量
2026-12-31
6th or higher
24%
7th-9th
11%
10th-12th
54%
13th-15th
4%
Below 15th
6%
10th-12th 54%
6th or higher 24%
7th-9th 11%
Below 15th 5.9%
$11,549 交易量
$11,549 交易量
2026-12-31
6th or higher
$6,285 交易量
24%
7th-9th
$1,141 交易量
11%
10th-12th
$3,468 交易量
54%
13th-15th
$329 交易量
4%
Below 15th
$326 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong summer performance and year-to-date momentum have positioned 2026 for a mid-tier all-time domestic ranking, driving the 53.5% implied probability on 10th-12th place.** Through mid-September, the market has surpassed $7.4 billion, fueled by record summer grosses exceeding $4.76 billion—topping 2013—led by *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* nearing $935 million domestically, *The Odyssey* past $600 million, and *Toy Story 5* contributing significantly. Analysts project a full-year total near or above $9 billion, potentially the highest since 2019, supported by robust attendance trends and hits across studios. However, fall variability and the impact of December tentpoles like *Avengers: Doomsday* and *Dune: Part Three* remain key swing factors that could shift the final standing relative to historical benchmarks such as 2023’s $8.9 billion or pre-pandemic peaks. Trader consensus reflects this balanced but not elite trajectory.
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
交易量
$11,549结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ETThis market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong summer performance and year-to-date momentum have positioned 2026 for a mid-tier all-time domestic ranking, driving the 53.5% implied probability on 10th-12th place.** Through mid-September, the market has surpassed $7.4 billion, fueled by record summer grosses exceeding $4.76 billion—topping 2013—led by *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* nearing $935 million domestically, *The Odyssey* past $600 million, and *Toy Story 5* contributing significantly. Analysts project a full-year total near or above $9 billion, potentially the highest since 2019, supported by robust attendance trends and hits across studios. However, fall variability and the impact of December tentpoles like *Avengers: Doomsday* and *Dune: Part Three* remain key swing factors that could shift the final standing relative to historical benchmarks such as 2023’s $8.9 billion or pre-pandemic peaks. Trader consensus reflects this balanced but not elite trajectory.
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$11,549结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET**Strong summer performance and year-to-date momentum have positioned 2026 for a mid-tier all-time domestic ranking, driving the 53.5% implied probability on 10th-12th place.** Through mid-September, the market has surpassed $7.4 billion, fueled by record summer grosses exceeding $4.76 billion—topping 2013—led by *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* nearing $935 million domestically, *The Odyssey* past $600 million, and *Toy Story 5* contributing significantly. Analysts project a full-year total near or above $9 billion, potentially the highest since 2019, supported by robust attendance trends and hits across studios. However, fall variability and the impact of December tentpoles like *Avengers: Doomsday* and *Dune: Part Three* remain key swing factors that could shift the final standing relative to historical benchmarks such as 2023’s $8.9 billion or pre-pandemic peaks. Trader consensus reflects this balanced but not elite trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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