Google’s prolonged delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drive the market’s 43.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model remains in limited partner testing on platforms like Antigravity while falling short of internal benchmarks for coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize rapid monthly Flash iterations such as the recent Gemini 3.8 Flash. Concurrent pre-training on the more ambitious Gemini 4 base model further signals internal resource allocation away from an immediate 3.5 Pro launch. Traders appear to weigh these verified timeline slips against the possibility of an accelerated partner rollout or surprise API availability in mid-to-late October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于在11月1日前不发布 44%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 16%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日 15.0%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 6.5%
$41,866 交易量
$41,866 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
3%
9月14日–9月20日
4%
9月21日–9月27日
6%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日
15%
10月5日–10月11日
3%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
16%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
6%
10 月 26 日–11 月 1 日
3%
在11月1日前不发布
44%
在11月1日前不发布 44%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 16%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日 15.0%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 6.5%
$41,866 交易量
$41,866 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
$1,349 交易量
3%
9月14日–9月20日
$400 交易量
4%
9月21日–9月27日
$541 交易量
6%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日
$506 交易量
15%
10月5日–10月11日
$373 交易量
3%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
$749 交易量
16%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
$427 交易量
6%
10 月 26 日–11 月 1 日
$451 交易量
3%
在11月1日前不发布
$35,778 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drive the market’s 43.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model remains in limited partner testing on platforms like Antigravity while falling short of internal benchmarks for coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize rapid monthly Flash iterations such as the recent Gemini 3.8 Flash. Concurrent pre-training on the more ambitious Gemini 4 base model further signals internal resource allocation away from an immediate 3.5 Pro launch. Traders appear to weigh these verified timeline slips against the possibility of an accelerated partner rollout or surprise API availability in mid-to-late October.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
交易量
$41,866结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drive the market’s 43.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model remains in limited partner testing on platforms like Antigravity while falling short of internal benchmarks for coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize rapid monthly Flash iterations such as the recent Gemini 3.8 Flash. Concurrent pre-training on the more ambitious Gemini 4 base model further signals internal resource allocation away from an immediate 3.5 Pro launch. Traders appear to weigh these verified timeline slips against the possibility of an accelerated partner rollout or surprise API availability in mid-to-late October.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$41,866结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETGoogle’s prolonged delays with the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drive the market’s 43.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model remains in limited partner testing on platforms like Antigravity while falling short of internal benchmarks for coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize rapid monthly Flash iterations such as the recent Gemini 3.8 Flash. Concurrent pre-training on the more ambitious Gemini 4 base model further signals internal resource allocation away from an immediate 3.5 Pro launch. Traders appear to weigh these verified timeline slips against the possibility of an accelerated partner rollout or surprise API availability in mid-to-late October.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题