Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 announcement declining reelection to Utah's 4th Congressional District amid court-ordered redistricting opened the race, yet trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5%, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, R+14 Partisan Voting Index, and historical GOP margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. A crowded Republican field—including former Rep. Mike Kennedy, Pasitale Lupeamanu, and others—advances via April 25 convention or June 23 primary, while Democrats field lesser-known challengers like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen. Absent a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, GOP infighting yielding a weak nominee, or unforeseen scandal, the structural Republican advantage in this reliably red battleground persists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$799 交易量
91%
民主党
$2,061 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 announcement declining reelection to Utah's 4th Congressional District amid court-ordered redistricting opened the race, yet trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5%, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, R+14 Partisan Voting Index, and historical GOP margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. A crowded Republican field—including former Rep. Mike Kennedy, Pasitale Lupeamanu, and others—advances via April 25 convention or June 23 primary, while Democrats field lesser-known challengers like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen. Absent a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, GOP infighting yielding a weak nominee, or unforeseen scandal, the structural Republican advantage in this reliably red battleground persists.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$2,860结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 announcement declining reelection to Utah's 4th Congressional District amid court-ordered redistricting opened the race, yet trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5%, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, R+14 Partisan Voting Index, and historical GOP margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. A crowded Republican field—including former Rep. Mike Kennedy, Pasitale Lupeamanu, and others—advances via April 25 convention or June 23 primary, while Democrats field lesser-known challengers like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen. Absent a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, GOP infighting yielding a weak nominee, or unforeseen scandal, the structural Republican advantage in this reliably red battleground persists.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,860结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March 4 announcement declining reelection to Utah's 4th Congressional District amid court-ordered redistricting opened the race, yet trader consensus prices Republican victory at 90.5%, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, R+14 Partisan Voting Index, and historical GOP margins exceeding 60% in recent cycles. A crowded Republican field—including former Rep. Mike Kennedy, Pasitale Lupeamanu, and others—advances via April 25 convention or June 23 primary, while Democrats field lesser-known challengers like Archie Williams III and Jonny Larsen. Absent a national midterm wave favoring Democrats, GOP infighting yielding a weak nominee, or unforeseen scandal, the structural Republican advantage in this reliably red battleground persists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题