**The US declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7.** The Trump administration stated it would not renew the agreement in its current form, triggering the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension to 2042. Mexico and Canada expressed support for renewal, but U.S. non-consent blocked the 16-year extension. This outcome aligns with trader expectations reflected in the 85.5% probability on “No.” Ongoing bilateral talks, including scheduled U.S.-Mexico rounds and tariff pressures on Canada, have not produced consensus on revisions to rules of origin, labor provisions, or non-market economy concerns. The agreement remains in force during annual reviews, but the lack of trilateral written confirmation for extension sustains the market’s assessment that a 2026 renewal is unlikely without further negotiated changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
15% 概率
$10,265 交易量
$10,265 交易量
2026-12-31
是
15% 概率
$10,265 交易量
$10,265 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7.**
The Trump administration stated it would not renew the agreement in its current form, triggering the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension to 2042. Mexico and Canada expressed support for renewal, but U.S. non-consent blocked the 16-year extension. This outcome aligns with trader expectations reflected in the 85.5% probability on “No.”
Ongoing bilateral talks, including scheduled U.S.-Mexico rounds and tariff pressures on Canada, have not produced consensus on revisions to rules of origin, labor provisions, or non-market economy concerns. The agreement remains in force during annual reviews, but the lack of trilateral written confirmation for extension sustains the market’s assessment that a 2026 renewal is unlikely without further negotiated changes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$10,265结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7.**
The Trump administration stated it would not renew the agreement in its current form, triggering the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension to 2042. Mexico and Canada expressed support for renewal, but U.S. non-consent blocked the 16-year extension. This outcome aligns with trader expectations reflected in the 85.5% probability on “No.”
Ongoing bilateral talks, including scheduled U.S.-Mexico rounds and tariff pressures on Canada, have not produced consensus on revisions to rules of origin, labor provisions, or non-market economy concerns. The agreement remains in force during annual reviews, but the lack of trilateral written confirmation for extension sustains the market’s assessment that a 2026 renewal is unlikely without further negotiated changes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,265结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The US declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7.** The Trump administration stated it would not renew the agreement in its current form, triggering the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension to 2042. Mexico and Canada expressed support for renewal, but U.S. non-consent blocked the 16-year extension. This outcome aligns with trader expectations reflected in the 85.5% probability on “No.” Ongoing bilateral talks, including scheduled U.S.-Mexico rounds and tariff pressures on Canada, have not produced consensus on revisions to rules of origin, labor provisions, or non-market economy concerns. The agreement remains in force during annual reviews, but the lack of trilateral written confirmation for extension sustains the market’s assessment that a 2026 renewal is unlikely without further negotiated changes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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