US-China talks following the September 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced a Super Intelligence Dialogue and an incident communication channel focused on risks and benefits of advanced AI systems, yet both governments have signaled no intent to mutually slow frontier model development. US statements emphasize continued leadership without “putting on brakes” or sharing sensitive capabilities, reinforced by ongoing export controls and concerns over Chinese distillation of American large language models. China similarly prioritizes rapid progress in its AI ecosystem while engaging on narrow safety deconfliction. This competitive dynamic, rooted in strategic rivalry rather than cooperation on capability pacing, underpins the 94.7% market-implied probability against an agreement. A shift would require the November APEC round to yield binding slowdown commitments, an outcome viewed as improbable given current positions.