Robust high-frequency data and nowcast models are anchoring trader consensus around the ≥3.0% outcome at 45.5% implied probability for Q3 2026 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.4% as of September 10, supported by resilient personal consumption expenditures near 3.6% and strong gross private domestic investment, including AI-related capital spending. This follows Q2’s 1.5% advance and contrasts with the Philadelphia Fed Survey’s 2.5% median forecast and the New York Fed’s 2.3% nowcast. Recent August CPI prints at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, alongside potential FOMC rate adjustments, add uncertainty to the growth trajectory ahead of the BEA’s advance Q3 estimate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于≥3.0% 46%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$26,784 交易量
$26,784 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
14%
≥3.0%
46%
≥3.0% 46%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$26,784 交易量
$26,784 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
$906 交易量
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 交易量
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 交易量
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,890 交易量
21%
2.5–3.0%
$3,411 交易量
14%
≥3.0%
$18,640 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust high-frequency data and nowcast models are anchoring trader consensus around the ≥3.0% outcome at 45.5% implied probability for Q3 2026 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.4% as of September 10, supported by resilient personal consumption expenditures near 3.6% and strong gross private domestic investment, including AI-related capital spending. This follows Q2’s 1.5% advance and contrasts with the Philadelphia Fed Survey’s 2.5% median forecast and the New York Fed’s 2.3% nowcast. Recent August CPI prints at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, alongside potential FOMC rate adjustments, add uncertainty to the growth trajectory ahead of the BEA’s advance Q3 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$26,784结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust high-frequency data and nowcast models are anchoring trader consensus around the ≥3.0% outcome at 45.5% implied probability for Q3 2026 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.4% as of September 10, supported by resilient personal consumption expenditures near 3.6% and strong gross private domestic investment, including AI-related capital spending. This follows Q2’s 1.5% advance and contrasts with the Philadelphia Fed Survey’s 2.5% median forecast and the New York Fed’s 2.3% nowcast. Recent August CPI prints at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, alongside potential FOMC rate adjustments, add uncertainty to the growth trajectory ahead of the BEA’s advance Q3 estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$26,784结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRobust high-frequency data and nowcast models are anchoring trader consensus around the ≥3.0% outcome at 45.5% implied probability for Q3 2026 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 4.4% as of September 10, supported by resilient personal consumption expenditures near 3.6% and strong gross private domestic investment, including AI-related capital spending. This follows Q2’s 1.5% advance and contrasts with the Philadelphia Fed Survey’s 2.5% median forecast and the New York Fed’s 2.3% nowcast. Recent August CPI prints at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core, alongside potential FOMC rate adjustments, add uncertainty to the growth trajectory ahead of the BEA’s advance Q3 estimate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题