**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 99.4% because the September 30, 2026, deadline has passed without President Trump notifying Congress or formally invoking the War Powers Resolution for new U.S. hostilities in Yemen.** In mid-to-late September, Trump weighed direct airstrikes against Houthi forces amid Saudi requests and Houthi advances on key terrain and Red Sea routes, with military options prepared and bombs even loaded at one point. He ultimately canceled those plans, opting against escalation that would trigger formal war powers reporting or authorization requirements. Broader U.S. focus remained on the ongoing Iran conflict, which has generated repeated congressional war powers resolutions but no parallel Yemen-specific invocation by the cutoff. Limited U.S. advisory support to Saudi Arabia continued without crossing into hostilities necessitating a new presidential report under the 1973 resolution. The near-certain pricing reflects the absence of any confirmed notification, executive order, or congressional filing meeting the market criteria before the date. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes are narrow: undisclosed last-minute actions or legal interpretations of prior strikes (unlikely given public reporting), though the deadline's passage and lack of reported developments make reversal improbable.