Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于《超级马里奥银河电影》第三周末票房
《超级马里奥银河电影》第三周末票房
低于4400万 100.0%
4400万-4800万 <1%
4800万-5200万 <1%
>5200万 <1%
$150,805 交易量
$150,805 交易量
2026-04-20
低于4400万
是
4400万-4800万
否
4800万-5200万
否
>5200万
否
低于4400万 100.0%
4400万-4800万 <1%
4800万-5200万 <1%
>5200万 <1%
$150,805 交易量
$150,805 交易量
2026-04-20
低于4400万
$11,715 交易量
是
4400万-4800万
$7,382 交易量
否
4800万-5200万
$91,237 交易量
否
>5200万
$40,472 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$150,805结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$150,805结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题