Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May primary runoff for the open seat vacated by Ken Paxton, while Democrat Nathan Johnson advanced from his party's runoff. Recent September polling averages place Middleton ahead by roughly three to five points in a contest rated Likely Republican by forecasters, narrower than historical margins for the office. Traders assign Middleton a 73% implied probability, reflecting Texas's long Republican dominance of the attorney general position since 1998 alongside Johnson's efforts to attract moderates and independents on issues such as consumer protection and office reform. Early voting begins October 19 ahead of the November 3 general election, with Libertarian Tom Oxford also on the ballot.