The federal criminal case against the Southern Poverty Law Center, indicted in April 2026 on wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and conspiracy charges tied to its informant payments, has seen repeated procedural delays that limit prospects for a 2026 resolution. A judge denied the SPLC’s August motion to dismiss on vindictive prosecution grounds, and superseding indictments added charges against a former executive, yet the trial date was pushed to February 2027 after the court rejected severance requests. With the market resolving only on a guilty finding or plea by December 31, 2026, and no verdict possible before year-end, traders assign overwhelming probability to no conviction within the window. The case remains active in the Middle District of Alabama under standard federal timelines.