The Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty marked the first federal appellate decision on sports event contracts, affirming a preliminary injunction that shields prediction market platform Kalshi's offerings from New Jersey gambling laws by deeming them swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction on a licensed designated contract market. This 2-1 decision heightens tensions with conflicting district court rulings, such as Ohio's March determination that such contracts fall outside CEA swap definitions, potentially creating a circuit split ripe for Supreme Court certiorari. Traders price low near-term grant odds due to procedural timelines—cert petitions typically follow mandate issuance, with SCOTUS conferences months away—while ongoing litigation in states like Maryland and Ohio could yield appealable final judgments by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$935,917 交易量
2026-07-31
7月31日
14%
12月31日
42%
$935,917 交易量
7月31日
$929,259 交易量
14%
12月31日
$6,658 交易量
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty marked the first federal appellate decision on sports event contracts, affirming a preliminary injunction that shields prediction market platform Kalshi's offerings from New Jersey gambling laws by deeming them swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction on a licensed designated contract market. This 2-1 decision heightens tensions with conflicting district court rulings, such as Ohio's March determination that such contracts fall outside CEA swap definitions, potentially creating a circuit split ripe for Supreme Court certiorari. Traders price low near-term grant odds due to procedural timelines—cert petitions typically follow mandate issuance, with SCOTUS conferences months away—while ongoing litigation in states like Maryland and Ohio could yield appealable final judgments by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$935,917结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty marked the first federal appellate decision on sports event contracts, affirming a preliminary injunction that shields prediction market platform Kalshi's offerings from New Jersey gambling laws by deeming them swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction on a licensed designated contract market. This 2-1 decision heightens tensions with conflicting district court rulings, such as Ohio's March determination that such contracts fall outside CEA swap definitions, potentially creating a circuit split ripe for Supreme Court certiorari. Traders price low near-term grant odds due to procedural timelines—cert petitions typically follow mandate issuance, with SCOTUS conferences months away—while ongoing litigation in states like Maryland and Ohio could yield appealable final judgments by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
交易量
$935,917结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty marked the first federal appellate decision on sports event contracts, affirming a preliminary injunction that shields prediction market platform Kalshi's offerings from New Jersey gambling laws by deeming them swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act subject to exclusive CFTC jurisdiction on a licensed designated contract market. This 2-1 decision heightens tensions with conflicting district court rulings, such as Ohio's March determination that such contracts fall outside CEA swap definitions, potentially creating a circuit split ripe for Supreme Court certiorari. Traders price low near-term grant odds due to procedural timelines—cert petitions typically follow mandate issuance, with SCOTUS conferences months away—while ongoing litigation in states like Maryland and Ohio could yield appealable final judgments by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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