Traders assign a 72.5% probability against a snap election in Saxony-Anhalt this year because the state held a regular Landtag election on September 6, 2026, with the new parliament convening on October 6. The AfD secured a plurality at 43.8% but fell three seats short of a majority in the 83-seat chamber, while other parties explicitly rule out coalitions with it. Government formation remains underway through exploratory talks involving the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW, with the outgoing Schulze cabinet continuing in a caretaker capacity. State constitutional rules allow dissolution only after failed minister-president votes or later supermajority action, and no party has advanced a formal snap-election motion. These procedural timelines and the fresh electoral mandate underpin the current trader consensus against an early vote before year-end.