El Niño conditions persisting through December 2026, with 100% probability per IRI and INMET outlooks, represent the main driver behind closely matched market-implied odds across drought severity bins for Minas Gerais coffee areas. October forecasts indicate below-average rainfall and 1–2 °C above-normal temperatures across northern and central zones, building on September soil moisture below 15% in parts of the north and elevating risks to arabica flowering and early fruit set via increased evapotranspiration and potential flower abortion. Recent above-normal showers in southern Minas Gerais have eased short-term deficits and supported flowering in some districts, yet ENSO-driven rainfall irregularity sustains genuine uncertainty around peak severe drought thresholds. Updated INMET and climatological model runs through November will clarify whether deficits intensify or moderate during the critical window.