Traders see substantial uncertainty in OpenAI's timeline for resuming large-scale training on its next frontier large language model, with the highest single-date probability at just 12.4% for October 15 and a 22.5% chance of no resumption by October 20. This spread stems from unresolved factors such as internal safety reviews, compute allocation decisions, and competitive pressure from labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Recent executive comments on alignment priorities and hardware constraints have kept expectations fluid across early-to-mid October windows. Potential catalysts include any official model capability updates or regulatory signals that could shift the implied probability distribution before resolution.