Recent UK parliamentary by-elections have been triggered primarily by MP resignations, including Nigel Farage's July 2026 departure from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests, and Keir Starmer's subsequent resignation from Holborn and St Pancras after stepping down as prime minister. The writ process typically sets polling 21–27 working days later, with the next contest in Starmer's former seat scheduled for early October 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations around further vacancies from leadership transitions, health-related exits, or procedural moves such as appointments to the Chiltern Hundreds, alongside scheduled local council by-elections that could influence timing or party strategies. Structural factors like party whips, coalition pressures in devolved regions, and historical patterns of mid-term resignations continue to shape probabilities for the immediate next trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,519 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
99%
12月31日
99%
$21,519 交易量
9月30日
$17,378 交易量
99%
12月31日
$4,141 交易量
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK parliamentary by-elections have been triggered primarily by MP resignations, including Nigel Farage's July 2026 departure from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests, and Keir Starmer's subsequent resignation from Holborn and St Pancras after stepping down as prime minister. The writ process typically sets polling 21–27 working days later, with the next contest in Starmer's former seat scheduled for early October 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations around further vacancies from leadership transitions, health-related exits, or procedural moves such as appointments to the Chiltern Hundreds, alongside scheduled local council by-elections that could influence timing or party strategies. Structural factors like party whips, coalition pressures in devolved regions, and historical patterns of mid-term resignations continue to shape probabilities for the immediate next trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
交易量
$21,519结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK parliamentary by-elections have been triggered primarily by MP resignations, including Nigel Farage's July 2026 departure from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests, and Keir Starmer's subsequent resignation from Holborn and St Pancras after stepping down as prime minister. The writ process typically sets polling 21–27 working days later, with the next contest in Starmer's former seat scheduled for early October 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations around further vacancies from leadership transitions, health-related exits, or procedural moves such as appointments to the Chiltern Hundreds, alongside scheduled local council by-elections that could influence timing or party strategies. Structural factors like party whips, coalition pressures in devolved regions, and historical patterns of mid-term resignations continue to shape probabilities for the immediate next trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$21,519结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETRecent UK parliamentary by-elections have been triggered primarily by MP resignations, including Nigel Farage's July 2026 departure from Clacton amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial interests, and Keir Starmer's subsequent resignation from Holborn and St Pancras after stepping down as prime minister. The writ process typically sets polling 21–27 working days later, with the next contest in Starmer's former seat scheduled for early October 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations around further vacancies from leadership transitions, health-related exits, or procedural moves such as appointments to the Chiltern Hundreds, alongside scheduled local council by-elections that could influence timing or party strategies. Structural factors like party whips, coalition pressures in devolved regions, and historical patterns of mid-term resignations continue to shape probabilities for the immediate next trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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