Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri holds a commanding position in the market following the Authenticity and Modernity Party’s plurality victory in the September 23, 2026 parliamentary elections, where it captured 97 seats. King Mohammed VI appointed her head of government designate on September 29, tasking her with forming a cabinet under constitutional precedent that favors the largest party. Recent coalition progress, including the October 12 announcement of a four-party majority with Istiqlal, USFP, and PPS totaling 207 seats, has reinforced trader consensus on her path to confirmation. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged delays in cabinet negotiations ahead of the October 20 finance bill deadline or an unexpected royal decision to select an alternative leader from within PAM, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current momentum.