Google’s Gemini series continues rapid iteration, with the 3.5 Flash variant reaching general availability on May 19, 2026, following the November 2025 debut of Gemini 3 Pro that immediately posted a record 1487 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5 variants, and Grok 4 models has kept Google focused on long-context reasoning, native multimodality, and tool-use improvements across 1-million-token windows. Recent previews and leaderboard entries typically occur shortly after internal testing, driven by Google DeepMind’s push for frontier performance ahead of developer conferences and enterprise rollouts. Traders watch for official announcements on Google AI Studio or Vertex AI that signal when the next major Gemini release will enter anonymous Arena battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,788 交易量
1460+
Yes
1470+
Yes
1480+
Yes
1490+
No
1500+
No
1510+
No
1520+
No
$42,788 交易量
1460+
$4,014 交易量
Yes
1470+
$4,234 交易量
Yes
1480+
$22,112 交易量
Yes
1490+
$5,740 交易量
No
1500+
$1,650 交易量
No
1510+
$1,769 交易量
No
1520+
$3,267 交易量
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini series continues rapid iteration, with the 3.5 Flash variant reaching general availability on May 19, 2026, following the November 2025 debut of Gemini 3 Pro that immediately posted a record 1487 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5 variants, and Grok 4 models has kept Google focused on long-context reasoning, native multimodality, and tool-use improvements across 1-million-token windows. Recent previews and leaderboard entries typically occur shortly after internal testing, driven by Google DeepMind’s push for frontier performance ahead of developer conferences and enterprise rollouts. Traders watch for official announcements on Google AI Studio or Vertex AI that signal when the next major Gemini release will enter anonymous Arena battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$42,788市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini series continues rapid iteration, with the 3.5 Flash variant reaching general availability on May 19, 2026, following the November 2025 debut of Gemini 3 Pro that immediately posted a record 1487 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5 variants, and Grok 4 models has kept Google focused on long-context reasoning, native multimodality, and tool-use improvements across 1-million-token windows. Recent previews and leaderboard entries typically occur shortly after internal testing, driven by Google DeepMind’s push for frontier performance ahead of developer conferences and enterprise rollouts. Traders watch for official announcements on Google AI Studio or Vertex AI that signal when the next major Gemini release will enter anonymous Arena battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$42,788市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Google’s Gemini series continues rapid iteration, with the 3.5 Flash variant reaching general availability on May 19, 2026, following the November 2025 debut of Gemini 3 Pro that immediately posted a record 1487 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Competitive pressure from Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5 variants, and Grok 4 models has kept Google focused on long-context reasoning, native multimodality, and tool-use improvements across 1-million-token windows. Recent previews and leaderboard entries typically occur shortly after internal testing, driven by Google DeepMind’s push for frontier performance ahead of developer conferences and enterprise rollouts. Traders watch for official announcements on Google AI Studio or Vertex AI that signal when the next major Gemini release will enter anonymous Arena battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题