**Friedrich Merz’s position as chancellor since May 2025 under a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition shapes the market, with the 58.5% on “No Next Chancellor before 2028” reflecting trader views that he will likely serve through the scheduled 2029 election despite weak approval ratings and CDU/CSU polling near 20%.** Recent state election losses in September 2026 and September polls showing 65% of Germans expecting an early end have fueled speculation of an internal CDU “Kanzlertausch,” yet no formal challenge or clear successor has emerged. Leading named options—Hendrik Wüst at 13.5%, Boris Pistorius, Alice Weidel, and Markus Söder—remain low because AfD exclusion from coalitions, coalition arithmetic, and the absence of a Bundestag dissolution mechanism limit near-term change. Traders price continuity higher than polling volatility or potential snap-election triggers before 2028.