Alibaba’s Qwen team accelerated its 2026 release cadence with the July preview and early-August launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 95 billion active parameters, 1M-token context, and multimodal support. Open-weight releases of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B and the lighter Qwen3.8-27B followed within days under Apache 2.0, while the August 26 debut of the cost-efficient Qwen3.8-Flash (125B total, 6B active) previewed the hybrid Gated DeltaNet architecture slated for Qwen4. These moves directly responded to Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and benchmarks from Anthropic and DeepSeek, emphasizing open access, agentic coding gains, and lower inference costs. No Qwen3.9 or subsequent Plus variant has been announced as of mid-September, leaving traders focused on whether Alibaba sustains quarterly cadence or shifts toward Qwen4 previews.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-15
September 15
4%
9 月 30 日
9%
$5,883 交易量
September 15
$234 交易量
4%
9 月 30 日
$1,962 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s Qwen team accelerated its 2026 release cadence with the July preview and early-August launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 95 billion active parameters, 1M-token context, and multimodal support. Open-weight releases of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B and the lighter Qwen3.8-27B followed within days under Apache 2.0, while the August 26 debut of the cost-efficient Qwen3.8-Flash (125B total, 6B active) previewed the hybrid Gated DeltaNet architecture slated for Qwen4. These moves directly responded to Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and benchmarks from Anthropic and DeepSeek, emphasizing open access, agentic coding gains, and lower inference costs. No Qwen3.9 or subsequent Plus variant has been announced as of mid-September, leaving traders focused on whether Alibaba sustains quarterly cadence or shifts toward Qwen4 previews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$5,883结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s Qwen team accelerated its 2026 release cadence with the July preview and early-August launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 95 billion active parameters, 1M-token context, and multimodal support. Open-weight releases of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B and the lighter Qwen3.8-27B followed within days under Apache 2.0, while the August 26 debut of the cost-efficient Qwen3.8-Flash (125B total, 6B active) previewed the hybrid Gated DeltaNet architecture slated for Qwen4. These moves directly responded to Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and benchmarks from Anthropic and DeepSeek, emphasizing open access, agentic coding gains, and lower inference costs. No Qwen3.9 or subsequent Plus variant has been announced as of mid-September, leaving traders focused on whether Alibaba sustains quarterly cadence or shifts toward Qwen4 previews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,883结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ETAlibaba’s Qwen team accelerated its 2026 release cadence with the July preview and early-August launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 95 billion active parameters, 1M-token context, and multimodal support. Open-weight releases of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B and the lighter Qwen3.8-27B followed within days under Apache 2.0, while the August 26 debut of the cost-efficient Qwen3.8-Flash (125B total, 6B active) previewed the hybrid Gated DeltaNet architecture slated for Qwen4. These moves directly responded to Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and benchmarks from Anthropic and DeepSeek, emphasizing open access, agentic coding gains, and lower inference costs. No Qwen3.9 or subsequent Plus variant has been announced as of mid-September, leaving traders focused on whether Alibaba sustains quarterly cadence or shifts toward Qwen4 previews.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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