Alibaba’s August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max—a 2.4-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with 95 billion active parameters, 1-million-token context, and native multimodal support—set the current benchmark for the Max line, emphasizing agentic coding, long-horizon tasks, and competitive scores against models like Claude Fable 5. The subsequent open-weight release of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B in mid-August and the September 2 0902 snapshot upgrade, which lifted CodeArena performance, signal Alibaba’s focus on rapid iteration within the 3.8 generation. No official announcements or credible reports have surfaced for a 3.9+ successor as of mid-September, amid intensifying competition from Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs. Traders are watching for hints at developer conferences, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the next flagship cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
September 30
14%
10月31日
59%
$8,275 交易量
September 30
$254 交易量
14%
10月31日
$5,804 交易量
59%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max—a 2.4-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with 95 billion active parameters, 1-million-token context, and native multimodal support—set the current benchmark for the Max line, emphasizing agentic coding, long-horizon tasks, and competitive scores against models like Claude Fable 5. The subsequent open-weight release of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B in mid-August and the September 2 0902 snapshot upgrade, which lifted CodeArena performance, signal Alibaba’s focus on rapid iteration within the 3.8 generation. No official announcements or credible reports have surfaced for a 3.9+ successor as of mid-September, amid intensifying competition from Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs. Traders are watching for hints at developer conferences, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the next flagship cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 9:42 AM ET
交易量
$8,275结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:42 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max—a 2.4-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with 95 billion active parameters, 1-million-token context, and native multimodal support—set the current benchmark for the Max line, emphasizing agentic coding, long-horizon tasks, and competitive scores against models like Claude Fable 5. The subsequent open-weight release of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B in mid-August and the September 2 0902 snapshot upgrade, which lifted CodeArena performance, signal Alibaba’s focus on rapid iteration within the 3.8 generation. No official announcements or credible reports have surfaced for a 3.9+ successor as of mid-September, amid intensifying competition from Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs. Traders are watching for hints at developer conferences, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the next flagship cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,275结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:42 AM ETAlibaba’s August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max—a 2.4-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with 95 billion active parameters, 1-million-token context, and native multimodal support—set the current benchmark for the Max line, emphasizing agentic coding, long-horizon tasks, and competitive scores against models like Claude Fable 5. The subsequent open-weight release of Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B in mid-August and the September 2 0902 snapshot upgrade, which lifted CodeArena performance, signal Alibaba’s focus on rapid iteration within the 3.8 generation. No official announcements or credible reports have surfaced for a 3.9+ successor as of mid-September, amid intensifying competition from Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs. Traders are watching for hints at developer conferences, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the next flagship cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题