Trader consensus in the Minnesota 2nd District Republican primary tilts toward state Sen. Eric Pratt at 55% implied probability over Marine veteran Tyler Kistner at 44%, driven by Pratt's superior fundraising—over $1 million raised versus Kistner's $800,000—and recent internal polls showing Pratt leading 52-42% among likely primary voters. Pratt's legislative experience as Senate minority leader bolsters his appeal in the safely Republican primary field, while Kistner's 2020 near-upset against Rep. Angie Craig provides name recognition but trails in endorsements from local GOP figures. A key recent catalyst: Pratt's July ad blitz highlighting border security, coinciding with a Star Tribune poll confirming his edge; the August 13 primary looms as the next market mover.