Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market shows tight clustering between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bands at 32% and 31.5% implied probabilities, reflecting trader focus on moderating momentum after the 2.1% year-over-year expansion in Q2. Official forecasts have been revised lower, with the finance ministry now projecting 1-2% full-year growth for 2026 amid softening domestic demand, elevated public debt, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the USMCA review. Recent inflation data, with August headline rising to 3.26%, supports Bank of Mexico’s steady policy stance at 6.50%, while leading indicators point to subdued consumption and investment. The October 30 preliminary release remains the key catalyst that could shift positioning in this closely balanced market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 18%
1.0-1.5% 11.2%
$25,687 交易量
$25,687 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
11%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
32%
2.5-3.0%
18%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
4%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 18%
1.0-1.5% 11.2%
$25,687 交易量
$25,687 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
$469 交易量
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 交易量
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,418 交易量
11%
1.5-2.0%
$8,528 交易量
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,915 交易量
32%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 交易量
18%
3.0-3.5%
$433 交易量
1%
3.5%+
$438 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market shows tight clustering between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bands at 32% and 31.5% implied probabilities, reflecting trader focus on moderating momentum after the 2.1% year-over-year expansion in Q2. Official forecasts have been revised lower, with the finance ministry now projecting 1-2% full-year growth for 2026 amid softening domestic demand, elevated public debt, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the USMCA review. Recent inflation data, with August headline rising to 3.26%, supports Bank of Mexico’s steady policy stance at 6.50%, while leading indicators point to subdued consumption and investment. The October 30 preliminary release remains the key catalyst that could shift positioning in this closely balanced market.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$25,687结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market shows tight clustering between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bands at 32% and 31.5% implied probabilities, reflecting trader focus on moderating momentum after the 2.1% year-over-year expansion in Q2. Official forecasts have been revised lower, with the finance ministry now projecting 1-2% full-year growth for 2026 amid softening domestic demand, elevated public debt, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the USMCA review. Recent inflation data, with August headline rising to 3.26%, supports Bank of Mexico’s steady policy stance at 6.50%, while leading indicators point to subdued consumption and investment. The October 30 preliminary release remains the key catalyst that could shift positioning in this closely balanced market.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,687结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETMexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market shows tight clustering between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bands at 32% and 31.5% implied probabilities, reflecting trader focus on moderating momentum after the 2.1% year-over-year expansion in Q2. Official forecasts have been revised lower, with the finance ministry now projecting 1-2% full-year growth for 2026 amid softening domestic demand, elevated public debt, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the USMCA review. Recent inflation data, with August headline rising to 3.26%, supports Bank of Mexico’s steady policy stance at 6.50%, while leading indicators point to subdued consumption and investment. The October 30 preliminary release remains the key catalyst that could shift positioning in this closely balanced market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题