Traders assign a 98.4% probability to Spencer Pratt finishing above 25% in the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary because ongoing vote counts have consistently placed the former reality TV star in that range, recently reported near 25.5–25.8% as ballots continue to be tallied. His surge stemmed from strong name recognition and voter frustration with wildfire response after losing his home in the 2025 Palisades Fire, helping him outperform earlier polls and stay competitive with Nithya Raman. While final certification remains weeks away, only an unprecedented late swing in remaining ballots—far outside historical patterns—would push him below the threshold and alter the outcome.