Recent polling averages position Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party at roughly 20–23 Knesset seats out of 120, translating to vote shares clustered in the high teens, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 18–20% band. As a new centrist list formed in 2025, Yashar has drawn support from security-focused voters and former Likud backers by stressing equal national service, a state inquiry into the October 7 attacks, and cost-of-living measures ahead of the October 27 election. Fluctuations in the latest surveys—some showing a narrow lead over Likud, others a tie—reflect campaign intensity, roughly 30% undecided voters, and bloc competition that keeps neither side near a 61-seat majority. These dynamics sustain the spread across 16–20% outcomes while limiting higher-share probabilities.