Recent Israeli polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party between 20 and 24 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, with averages near 21–22 and frequent ties or narrow leads over Likud. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the opposition Zionist parties consistently reach the 61-seat majority threshold, leaving outcomes dependent on smaller lists clearing the 3.25% electoral bar and final voter shifts among undecided respondents. Poll-to-poll differences, including variations in how survey houses treat threshold parties such as the Reservists-Economic list, sustain the tight distribution across seat brackets. Late-campaign events, security developments, or turnout differentials in key voter segments could still move Yashar’s final tally within the current range reflected by trader pricing.