Recent polling averages place Shas at 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share and aligning with the market’s leading outcome. This positioning reflects steady backing from Sephardi ultra-Orthodox communities amid a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election, with limited volatility in surveys from late September through early October. The October 11 surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism offers a potential seat-maximization mechanism but has not yet shifted projected totals. Shas chairman Aryeh Deri’s insistence on prior passage of legislation securing yeshiva draft exemptions continues to anchor the party’s coalition strategy without altering its standalone polling trajectory. Broader bloc competition and undecided voters remain the primary variables that could still influence final results within the resolution window.