Recent polling averages place the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut joint list at roughly 5–7 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, implying a vote share centered in the 5–6% range that traders currently price highest. The technical alliance, formed in early September, merges Bezalel Smotrich’s settlement-focused base with Moshe Feiglin’s supporters under a single ballot, with RZP candidates dominating the slate. Support has remained steady across multiple surveys amid a fragmented right-religious bloc that hovers near but short of a majority in most aggregates. Coalition arithmetic after the vote could amplify the list’s leverage in negotiations, while the 3.25% threshold and final-week turnout among religious and nationalist voters remain the main variables that could shift the outcome within the narrow band reflected in current pricing.