Recent Israeli election polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote show Ra'am, the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas, consistently projected at five seats, with results clustered between four and six across multiple surveys. This tightness stems from stable Arab-sector turnout patterns, competition for votes with the larger Joint List, and Ra'am’s independent run after splitting from prior alliances while emphasizing pragmatic civic priorities. The Central Elections Committee’s disqualification of Ra’am, subject to Supreme Court review, adds procedural uncertainty that could affect ballot access and voter mobilization. Surplus-vote agreements and final-week shifts in Arab voter preferences or turnout could move the outcome among the leading seat totals reflected in current trader consensus.