Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places Otzma Yehudit near 7–8 seats on average, reflecting roughly 6% support amid competition within the right-wing bloc from Religious Zionism–Zehut and smaller lists. Tight trader probabilities across the 5–7.5% ranges stem from fragmented voter preferences, surplus-vote agreement deadlines on October 16, and uncertainty over turnout among security-focused supporters. Late shifts in right-bloc consolidation, final pre-election surveys, or any major security developments could widen separation by altering the share captured by Itamar Ben-Gvir’s list relative to threshold dynamics and competing nationalist parties.