Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, at roughly four seats, with results fluctuating around the 3.25 percent electoral threshold. Multiple surveys from late September and early October show the party clearing the bar in some samples while falling short in others, reflecting limited campaign time since its August launch and competition for right-wing votes from established lists. Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than four seats because the party has not yet demonstrated consistent support above the threshold in the final weeks before the October 27 vote. Potential shifts could come from turnout among its target voters or last-minute alliances.